Sabalenka gets her opening as Rybakina exits the WTA Finals

Aryna Sabalenka opens the WTA Finals on Monday as the highest seed left in the field after world No. 1 Elena Rybakina withdrew with a viral illness.

Rybakina pulled out of the season-ending championships on Saturday, a day before play began at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in California, ESPN reported. She cited a body that was “not physically ready to compete” and said she would rest at home and prepare for 2027, the BBC reported.

The withdrawal hands Sabalenka her cleanest path in six appearances at the event to the one trophy she has never won. It also gives her a chance to reframe a year in which she lost the No. 1 ranking and failed to win a major for the first time since 2022.

Rybakina was the defending champion. She beat Sabalenka in the 2025 final in Saudi Arabia and ended Sabalenka’s 99-week reign at the top of the rankings by defeating her in the US Open final in September, ESPN reported. The same player denied Sabalenka a third straight Australian Open title in January.

Now that opponent is gone. Rybakina’s withdrawal was not a surprise: she had already pulled out of the Pan Pacific Open quarterfinals the week before with a neck injury, ESPN reported. Marta Kostyuk moved into the draw as the first alternate in Group 1.

Sabalenka leads Group 2 as the top seed, with No. 3 Mirra Andreeva, No. 6 Elina Svitolina and No. 7 Karolina Muchova, ESPN reported. She opens Monday against Muchova, who owns a 3-2 career record against her, ESPN’s D’Arcy Maine reported.

Before the withdrawal, Sabalenka and Rybakina were tied for the best odds to win the title, according to DraftKings, ESPN reported. With Rybakina out, Sabalenka becomes the betting favorite by default, though the field behind her is strong.

The 2026 season was a down year by Sabalenka’s standards. She won three WTA titles, including the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami, and reached two major finals. But she lost the US Open final to Rybakina, fell to No. 2 in the rankings, and suffered her earliest Grand Slam exit since 2022 with a fourth-round loss to Naomi Osaka at Wimbledon, ESPN reported.

Her run of 14 consecutive majors reaching the quarterfinals or better came to an end at Wimbledon, ESPN reported. She had held the No. 1 ranking for 99 straight weeks before Rybakina overtook her in September. Those streaks built her case as the best player in the world. Both are gone.

Sabalenka told reporters at last month’s China Open that she felt fresher than usual at this stage of the calendar. “I feel like this year I feel a bit fresher and kind of, like, I expect a bit more from myself,” she said. “This season is a different story, so I feel fresh and ready to go,” ESPN reported.

The WTA Finals is the one title that has eluded her across six appearances. She reached the final twice, including last year, and has never won it. The singles champion earns up to $3.37 million in prize money, down from the record $5.235 million paid in 2025, ESPN reported.

The event moved to Indian Wells for one year only after the WTA pulled out of a three-year hosting deal with Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, because of regional security concerns around the Iran war, ESPN reported. It is the first time the Finals have been played outdoors since Cancun in 2023. The WTA announced in September that Charlotte, North Carolina, will host starting in 2027 for three seasons, ESPN reported.

Play opened Sunday with two Group 1 matches. Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova beat alternate Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 6-4, and Coco Gauff beat fellow American Jessica Pegula 6-4, 6-7 (5-7), 6-2, the BBC reported. Gauff, the 2024 champion, won in two hours and 39 minutes.

The rest of Sabalenka’s group is dangerous. Andreeva, 19, won her first major at the French Open and is the youngest champion there since Monica Seles in 1992. Svitolina, 32, won this event in 2018 and reached the final in 2019. Muchova, 30, made her first Wimbledon final this year and won her first 1000-level title in Qatar, ESPN reported.

Rybakina finishes her season with a 54-14 match record and four titles, ESPN reported. She landed 438 aces, 140 more than Sabalenka, and won 10 matches against fellow top-10 players, the BBC reported. Her absence removes the player who beat Sabalenka in the two matches that defined her year.

What I think

Sabalenka has earned this opening. She has been to this event six times and reached two finals. She has never won it. The player who beat her last year is gone.

But the draw being hers to lose is exactly what should make her nervous. Sabalenka’s 2026 was defined by the matches she was expected to win and did not: the Wimbledon loss to Osaka, the US Open final against Rybakina, a 99-week reign at No. 1 that ended in one afternoon. The pattern is not bad luck. It is the cost of playing to a standard that leaves no margin.

The group is not a formality. Muchova has beaten her three times in five meetings and opens against her Monday. Andreeva won a major this year at 19. Svitolina has won this tournament before. If Sabalenka treats the week as a coronation, she will lose.

She says she feels fresh. That may be the most dangerous thing she could say. The players who win year-end events are the ones who treat every match as the match. Sabalenka has spent a year learning what happens when she expects. Indian Wells is the chance to spend a week proving she has learned it.