Mississippi Senate race hinges on uncounted ballots

Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith 49.0% to 48.8% in the Mississippi Senate race, with up to 20,000 affidavit ballots still to be counted.

Colom leads by 0.2 percentage points, according to the Detroit News. Between 12,000 and 20,000 affidavit and provisional ballots remain. The outcome depends on whether those ballots are counted.

Hyde-Smith sent a letter to all 82 county election commissioners in Mississippi demanding that they preserve all ballots. Colom’s lawyer called the letter unlawful.

Mississippi has 10 days to certify the results, until Nov. 13. It is the only U.S. state without a legal provision for a recount.

If Colom wins, he becomes the first Black U.S. senator from Mississippi since 1874. Mississippi has not had a Black senator in 152 years.

What the coverage missed

The coverage focused on the vote count. The part that got less attention is the fight over which votes get counted.

Hyde-Smith sent a letter to all 82 county election commissioners. The letter demands ballot preservation. Colom’s lawyer called it unlawful. The dispute is about whether affidavit ballots will be counted or disqualified.

Affidavit ballots are cast when a voter’s name does not appear on the poll list or when the voter lacks required identification. They are counted after election officials verify the voter’s eligibility.

Hyde-Smith’s letter is an attempt to influence that process. By demanding preservation, she is creating a record for a potential challenge. If the ballots are counted and she loses, she can argue they should not have been.

Mississippi has no recount law. The only way to challenge the result is through the courts. The letter to election commissioners is the first step in that process.

What I think

The race will be decided by affidavit ballots. These are the ballots cast by voters whose eligibility was in question. They are the ballots that are easiest to disqualify.

Hyde-Smith sent a letter to all 82 county election commissioners. Her campaign says it is about preserving ballots. The letter is about controlling which ballots are counted.

Colom leads by a fraction of a percentage point. There are up to 20,000 affidavit ballots. If the ballots are counted, Colom could win. If they are disqualified, Hyde-Smith could win.

The fight is not about the votes that were counted. It is about the votes that were not. In a state with no recount law, the battle over affidavit ballots is the only battle that matters.

Colom would be the first Black senator from Mississippi since 1874. The state has the largest Black population percentage of any U.S. state. It has not sent a Black person to the Senate in 152 years. The result will say something about Mississippi, and the affidavit ballots will determine what it says.