Moderna smashes estimates and raises outlook

Moderna smashed third-quarter revenue and earnings estimates and raised its 2026 sales growth guidance, as new vaccine launches and geographic expansion drove a surprise profit, CNBC reported.

The biotech company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.31 billion, a 29% jump from the year-ago period, beating the $885.1 million analysts expected. Earnings per share were 38 cents, compared with an expected loss of $1.25. Net income was $162 million, compared with a net loss of $200 million a year earlier.

Moderna now expects 2026 revenue growth of 15% to 25%, up from its previous guidance of up to 10%. Shares rose about 3% in premarket trading. The stock has gained more than 700% this year, largely on optimism about the company’s experimental cancer vaccine with Merck.

What drove the beat

CEO Stephane Bancel pointed to new product launches and geographic diversification. The company is seeing the full-year impact of its next-generation mRNA Covid vaccine, which won U.S. approval in May 2025. Covid is a seasonal business with contracts typically established in the first quarter, so the vaccine only had a partial year of sales in 2025.

Moderna’s new stand-alone flu shot, approved in the U.S. in August, will have a limited launch in 2026 because of the timing. But the vaccine pipeline is filling out, and each new product adds a revenue stream that is not dependent on Covid alone.

Geographic expansion also helped. Revenue was $780 million in the U.S. and $533 million in international markets, with growth in Canada, the U.K. and Asia. Bancel said the company’s work to lower costs also contributed to the profit. “It’s the sales that are stronger and the costs that are also lower,” he said on CNBC’s Squawk Box.

The cancer vaccine

The results come weeks after Moderna and Merck unveiled promising late-stage data on their experimental personalized cancer vaccine in combination with immunotherapy Keytruda in certain melanoma patients. The data was positive, but investors battered the stock after part of the results was leaked on social media before a European medical conference.

Bancel called the market reaction “surprising” but said long-term investors and analysts who examined the full data responded positively. He said doctors in the field “were so impressed with the data” and many expressed hope to use it in practice.

The leak was a reminder of how social media can move a stock before the full data is available. Investors who traded on the partial leak sold into a positive result, and the stock recovered as the complete data circulated. The episode is a case study in why premature data releases are dangerous for biotech investors, and why the full picture matters more than the first fragment.

The cancer vaccine is the catalyst that has driven the 700% stock gain this year. A personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, used in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor, is the kind of product that could change the standard of care in oncology. The Phase 3 data with Merck is the first evidence that the approach works in a randomized trial, and the market is pricing in the possibility of approval.

What I think

The Q3 beat is the proof that Moderna is more than a Covid story. The 29% revenue jump and the swing to profit are driven by new products and new markets, not by a surprise Covid surge. The guidance raise to 15-25% growth from up to 10% is a meaningful revision, and it gives the company credibility with investors who have been waiting for evidence that the mRNA platform can generate revenue beyond the pandemic.

The cancer vaccine is the real prize. The Merck partnership and the Phase 3 melanoma data are the reason the stock is up 700% this year, and the leak-related selloff was a buying opportunity for investors who looked at the full data. Bancel’s comment that doctors want to use the vaccine in practice is the signal that matters. If the oncology community embraces the approach, the market opportunity is enormous, and Moderna’s mRNA platform is the technology that makes personalized cancer vaccines feasible at scale.

The flu shot launch is the quiet part of the story. A limited launch in 2026 is not going to move the needle this year, but it is the first evidence that Moderna can compete in the seasonal vaccine market outside of Covid. If the flu shot gains share, it adds a recurring revenue stream that diversifies the business further. The mRNA platform’s advantage is speed of development and manufacturing, which could matter in a bad flu season or a pandemic scare.

The biotech sector has been out of favor, and Moderna’s 700% gain is the exception that proves the rule. The company is executing on the pipeline, the cost base is coming down, and the cancer vaccine data is the kind of catalyst that can sustain the valuation. The risk is that the cancer vaccine approval takes longer than expected, or that the Phase 3 data does not hold up in a larger population. But the Q3 numbers show that the base business is growing, and that gives the company time to wait for the oncology outcome.

The pharmaceutical industry is watching the Moderna-Merck cancer vaccine closely. If personalized mRNA vaccines work in melanoma, they could work in other cancers, and the technology platform could expand beyond oncology into autoimmune diseases and rare genetic conditions. Moderna is the pure-play mRNA company, and the Q3 beat gives it the financial runway to prove the platform works.