Novo Nordisk jumps as Wegovy pill sales beat estimates

Novo Nordisk posted third-quarter earnings ahead of expectations as sales of its Wegovy pill blew past estimates, sending shares up as much as 6% in early trading, CNBC reported.

The Danish drugmaker raised its full-year outlook to adjusted revenue and operating profit growth between negative 2% and 2% at constant exchange rates, up from its previous guidance of negative 6% to flat. The improvement reflects strong momentum in the U.S. GLP-1 market, where Novo said it holds 80% share despite competition from Eli Lilly.

CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC that the company continues to see strong demand. “We today continue to see 80% market share with our product, despite the fact that competition has come and strengthened their presence,” he said.

The numbers

Third-quarter sales came in at 79.2 billion Danish kroner ($11.9 billion), up 4% year-on-year at constant exchange rates and ahead of FactSet estimates of 73.6 billion kroner. Adjusted operating profit was 31.7 billion kroner, compared with the expected 28.6 billion kroner.

The Wegovy pill, launched earlier this year, totaled 5.4 billion kroner in sales, above the roughly 4.5 billion kroner analysts expected. Injectable Wegovy brought in 20.4 billion kroner, and diabetes treatment Ozempic generated 29.7 billion kroner, both above expectations.

The pill is the story. Novo was first to market with an oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug, and the sales figures suggest the product is gaining traction with patients who prefer a pill over an injection. The competitive advantage may be temporary, as Eli Lilly is developing its own oral GLP-1, but for now Novo has the pill market to itself.

The Lilly rivalry

Novo pioneered GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which are now used by about 10% of Americans. But the company has struggled to maintain its early lead as Eli Lilly caught up and surpassed it in the U.S. market. Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have gained share, and Lilly’s next-generation drug Foundayo is in development.

The rivalry is shifting to next-generation treatments that can address obesity-linked conditions like heart disease, kidney disease, sleep apnea, and arthritis. Novo is preparing to launch CagriSema, a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide, but the drug failed to beat Lilly’s medicines in trials, raising questions about its commercial viability.

Citi analysts maintained a neutral rating on Novo stock, citing uncertainty over weight-loss drug pricing and a lack of a clear Wegovy successor in the pipeline. The CagriSema disappointment is the cloud over an otherwise strong quarter.

CFO departure

Novo announced that Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen is leaving at the end of 2026 after 27 years at the company, including nine as CFO. Luigi La Corte, currently CFO of Swiss dermatology company Galderma, will succeed him.

The departure of a long-serving CFO is a signal. Knudsen has been with Novo through the GLP-1 boom and the recent struggles, and his exit comes as the company is trying to convince investors that its recovery is durable. A new CFO brings fresh perspective but also transition risk, and the market will watch La Corte’s first guidance numbers closely.

The recovery question

Novo’s Copenhagen-listed shares were up 3.4% on the earnings, but the stock is down about 13% year-to-date. The decline reflects a tumultuous year in which Novo fell behind Lilly, the CagriSema trial disappointed, and the company’s post-Wegovy growth strategy failed to reassure investors.

Doustdar cautioned that a turnaround cannot be established on the basis of a single strong quarter. “Turnaround and recovery is not done based on one data point, on one quarterly good result,” he told reporters. The progressive improvement in guidance throughout the year gives him confidence, but the market wants to see sustained growth, not just one good quarter.

What I think

The quarter is genuinely good. Wegovy pill sales of 5.4 billion kroner against a 4.5 billion estimate is a meaningful beat, and the raised guidance shows the company is gaining confidence. The 80% U.S. market share claim is surprising given how much attention Lilly has received, and it suggests that Novo’s lead is more durable than the stock price implies.

But the stock is down 13% year-to-date for a reason. The CagriSema failure is the real problem. Novo’s current drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, are generating strong revenue, but the pipeline question is what comes next. If CagriSema cannot beat Lilly’s products, Novo’s competitive position erodes as Lilly’s next-generation drugs reach the market. The quarter buys time, but it does not answer the pipeline question.

The CFO departure adds uncertainty. Knudsen has been the financial steward of the GLP-1 era, and his exit at a moment when the company is trying to prove its recovery is durable is a complication. La Corte may be excellent, but the transition is one more thing for investors to worry about.

The pharmaceutical industry is in a race between Novo and Lilly that will be decided by next-generation drugs, not by current-quarter sales. Novo’s quarter is strong, but Lilly raised its own guidance the week before, and the two companies are trading beats. The question that matters is which company has the better pipeline, and on that question, Lilly has the edge after CagriSema’s disappointment.

The pill is Novo’s one advantage. An oral GLP-1 is more convenient than an injection, and patients prefer it. If Novo can defend the pill market while improving its injectable franchise, the recovery could be real. But Lilly is not standing still, and the lead is temporary. The quarter is a step in the right direction, but the turnaround is not done.